
Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan is optimistic Bitcoin's recent rally can continue "for some time to come" thanks to Strategy's issuing of a special brand of stock that pays a yield like a bond.
"Bitcoin is up roughly 20% from its February lows, trading around $76,000," Hougan wrote in a Tuesday note. "There have been multiple drivers of the recent rally, including strong buying from ETFs ($3.8 billion since March 1) and renewed purchases by long-term holders. But Strategy has been the single biggest factor, having added $7.2 billion in bitcoin over the past eight weeks."
Bitcoin was down by less than 1% on Tuesday, trading at $76,173, according to The Block's price page. In February, the price of BTC fell below $65,000.
Hougan pointed out that Strategy's (MSTR) renewed purchasing power has been fueled by the company issuing STRC, a perpetual preferred stock that trades like equity but offers a bond-like dividend yield — currently around 11.5% annually.
While the more STRC Strategy issues, the more liability the company assumes, Hougan expects the company to choose to issue more of the instrument in order to buy more bitcoin. This, of course, could contribute to both supporting and driving the price of bitcoin higher.
"At current bitcoin prices, the company could hypothetically pay existing dividends for 42 years," said Hougan. "So yes, if bitcoin goes nowhere until 2068, Strategy is cooked. But if bitcoin rises by 20% a year, Strategy could pay the dividends forever."
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If bitcoin keeps rising in price, that strengthens Strategy's balance sheet, making it less exposed to the risk of overleveraging itself through being on the hook to pay dividends tied to its STRC issuance.
"Rumors suggest Strategy could have raised even more capital in its last STRC offering if it had wanted," said Hougan. "With junk bonds yielding less than 7% and investors fleeing private credit, STRC’s 11.5% yield—backed by a more than $40 billion bitcoin cushion—looks particularly attractive. I suspect Strategy will raise billions more through STRC."
Last week, Strategy purchased 3,273 BTC for approximately $255 million, bringing its total holdings to 818,334 BTC.
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