The seven-month streak where leading prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket’s combined trading volume set a fresh record monthly high ended in April, according to The Block’s data.
Last month saw the first fall-off in total sector trading activity since the platforms started seeing exploding growth in September.
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That said, the decline was driven by lower activity on Polymarket's global platform, while the firm's U.S. subsidiary, which is still being rolled out, grew, as did Kalshi.
The number of active traders of Polymarket dropped to about 643,000 in April, down from over 733,000 in March, breaking another seven-month growth streak, according to The Block’s data. This coincided with a drop in U.S. dollar volumes on the site, as well as a plunge in notional volume on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
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Still, April saw Polymarket and Kalshi's combined lifetime volumes cross $150 billion.
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Polymarket and Kalshi remain the leading betting markets in a sector that is beginning to gain widespread attention and scrutiny. Kalshi, in particular, is quickly gaining traction in the sports betting category, which is drawing the ire of state-level regulators and gaming authorities.
Kalshi won a legal battle against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2024 to offer election-related contracts, opening the door for it to expand and gain a foothold in the U.S. That lawsuit also paved the way for Polymarket to reenter the U.S. by acquiring a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, after it was banned for offering unregistered event contracts. Polymarket is now reportedly looking to onboard its entire global marketplace into the U.S.
The CFTC, under a new administration, now embraces prediction market experimentation, having issued guidance to foster innovation, withdrawing prior stricter guidelines on gaming contracts, and having filed lawsuits against several states that are looking to bar prediction markets based on the legal theory that events contracts are binary derivatives under federal remit.
In March, Kalshi raised capital at a $22 billion valuation. Polymarket, previously backed by NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange, is reportedly looking to raise at a $15 billion valuation. Both firms are actively taking steps to bar insider trading on their platforms.
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