Galaxy Research has cut its estimate of the odds that the Clarity Act will become law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month, citing timing and Senate calendar constraints.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, wrote in a Friday post that the team has reduced the odds of Clarity Act passage in 2026 to 50-50, "as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago."
According to Thorn, the downgrade primarily reflects the Senate calendar rather than the substance of the bill. Galaxy had previously lowered the Clarity Act's passage odds to 60% on June 5, but no floor date has been set, and no motion to proceed has been scheduled, he said.
The analyst also explained that President Donald Trump further complicated the bill's prospects. Trump warned last week that he would withhold his signature from a housing bill unless Congress passes the SAVE Act, further squeezing the Senate's legislative calendar and "thereby hurting the Clarity Act's odds," Thorn said.
"For a 60-vote bill that still needs a merged Banking-Agriculture text, a motion to proceed, floor debate, an amendment process, and then House action on whatever the Senate produces, the runway is quickly declining into just a matter of weeks," Thorn wrote, adding that Senate Majority Leader Thune should announce floor time by early July at the latest.
Without a scheduling announcement by then, Thorn said the path could slip to September, which "runs directly into the midterm dynamics" that would make controversial votes difficult to schedule.
"We still think enactment this year has a strong chance — for a bill of this magnitude and complexity, 50-50 are pretty good odds," Thorn added.
The Clarity Act ranks high on the Senate's July agenda, a Senate aide told The Block last week. "Clarity will be a top priority for Democrats and Republicans when the Senate returns in July," the aide said.
Senators have spent months negotiating the crypto market structure bill. The legislation intends to divide oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission while giving the latter primary authority over most crypto assets.
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