Bitcoin traded above $61,000 on Thursday, clawing back some ground after tumbling to a 21-month low earlier in the week, according to The Block's prices page.

U.S. spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds recorded a net outflow of $296 million on July 1, according to data compiled by The Block.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF posted the largest single-day inflow among the group at $36.3 million. Spot ether (ETH) ETFs fared better, taking in a net $14.8 million, led by BlackRock's ETHA at $36.6 million.

The moves follow The Block's report that spot bitcoin ETFs shed $4.5 billion in June, their worst month since launching in January 2024, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $3.55 billion of it.

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Accumulation signals

Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish wrote that long-term holders have returned to accumulation after an extended period of distribution, with buying activity broadening across wallet cohorts, including smaller holders and entities holding 100 to 1,000 BTC.

More bitcoin is now held at a loss than in profit for the first time in this drawdown, with about 10.83 million BTC underwater against 9.22 million BTC still in profit, Beamish wrote.

He pointed to a bid-heavy Coinbase orderbook and increasingly supportive dealer gamma positioning near current prices as signs of stabilizing structure, even as leveraged traders on Hyperliquid have pushed net long exposure to its highest level in the observed period.

Options traders, meanwhile, are paying up for downside protection, with the put/call volume ratio climbing to its highest reading in a year. Rising implied volatility points to the early stages of a bottoming process, Beamish wrote, though he cautioned a final capitulation-driven volatility spike "cannot yet be ruled out."

On the macro front, Beamish cited the Federal Reserve's fourth consecutive rate hold in June under new Chair Kevin Warsh, whose hawkish tone has pushed rate-cut expectations out to 2027 at the earliest.

The seller that won't quit

A separate analysis from Bitfinex argued the selloff is being driven by crypto-native sellers rather than macro conditions.

Treasury yields fell, and the S&P 500 closed the quarter at a record 7,449, up 9.6% on the year, yet bitcoin still retreated to retest its cycle low — the fourth time this cycle that falling yields have coincided with a falling bitcoin price, according to the note.

Bitcoin's cycle low first came in at $58,000 on June 25, was retested on June 30, and gave way further to $57,800 at the start of the third quarter, Bitfinex analysts shared with The Block.

The June 26 quarterly options expiry, the third-largest in history at $10.6 billion in bitcoin and ether notional, reset the options book without rescuing the price, per the note.

Bitcoin still trades below the "gamma flip" near $68,000, a zone where dealers hedge in ways that amplify rather than dampen volatility. The 25-delta skew registered a put-dominant 5.2%, which Bitfinex flagged as "elevated fear."

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Bitfinex tied the pressure to two buyer complexes, turning sellers at once. Spot ETFs booked a seventh straight negative week through June 26, with $1.79 billion in net redemptions — the second-worst week on record — led by BlackRock's IBIT, whose average holder is now near 40% underwater, Bitfinex said.

Separately, Strategy's board authorized the sale of up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin on June 29 to fund a dollar reserve and service its obligations, as the STRC preferred dividend steps up to 12% from 11.5% for record dates on or after July 1. MSTR now trades around 30% below the value of the bitcoin it holds, its first sustained discount since it began accumulating in 2020, according to the note.

Bitfinex pointed to the aggregate realized price —the average acquisition cost of all circulating supply —at about $53,000—roughly 9% below spot and historically the line marking full capitulation.

The firm wrote that the "realized-price hold is the strongest structural argument the bull case has," adding it is "support only till the mechanical sellers allow it to be."

Ethereum's fragile bounce

XS.com's Simon-Peter Massabni wrote that ether has rebounded from lows near $1,500 to trade around $1,600-$1,620, calling it technical bottom-fishing rather than a confirmed reversal.

Spot ether ETFs have now posted seven straight weeks of net outflows totaling roughly $1.18 billion, he wrote, with an eighth losing week possible.

Massabni said ether's short-term outlook "remains cautious," with a hold above $1,500 and stabilizing ETF flows needed to open a path toward $1,700 to $1,800; a break below $1,500 could extend the downtrend further.

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Macro: all eyes on jobs data

Capital.com's Kyle Rodda wrote that U.S. tech stocks weighed on Wall Street to start the third quarter even as the broader market advanced, with ISM manufacturing data showing easing price pressures and Fed Chair Warsh suggesting inflation may have peaked.

Traders pared the odds of a Fed rate hike this month to 28% from roughly 33% earlier in the week, according to Rodda.

He flagged Thursday's non-farm payrolls report, released a day early ahead of the July 4 holiday, as the bigger test. Economists expected 111,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.3%, but the figures came in at 57,000 and 4.2%, respectively. Oil fell to its lowest level since before the U.S.-Iran war, Rodda added, after President Trump signaled openness to extending ceasefire talks beyond the 60-day deadline.

Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn wrote that markets opened the second half of the year cautiously despite eased geopolitical tension from the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with attention on whether the labor market justifies a higher-for-longer Fed stance under Warsh.

At the ECB's forum in Sintra, Warsh said, "If anyone thought we'd be happy with inflation above 2%, they will be disappointed," according to Hathorn. She wrote that USD/JPY's pullback from multi-decade highs above 162 looks more like profit-taking than intervention, with the broader trend still favoring dollar strength on Fed-BOJ policy divergence.

The case for looking past the rotation

Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage argued that crypto's underlying thesis is strengthening even as investor attention is focused on AI stocks and a wave of IPOs.

Crypto ecosystem transactions hit an all-time high in the second quarter; stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of 2026 has already exceeded all of 2025; and tokenized real-world assets have grown by more than 60% this year, Kerbage said.

He added that "when it comes, it tends to move quickly," referring to a rotation back into crypto, and advised advisors to size positions for the cycle rather than mistake a temporary rotation for a structural breakdown.

Exchange reserves are at a seven-year low near 2.21 million BTC, and long-term holder supply sits at a record 16.3 million BTC, according to Bitfinex, with no distribution footprint from that cohort yet.

At publication time, bitcoin changed hands around $61,500 and ether traded near $1,664, The Block’s prices page shows.

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