Bitcoin Faces Bearish August as Traders Price in an 80% Chance of a Dip

Polymarket users are betting on a higher chance that the Bitcoin (BTC) price will continue in a mid-term falling trend.

As of Wednesday, traders have put more capital behind a continued BTC price drop in August compared to bets on a rebound toward a new all-time high.

On the market for the question “What price will Bitcoin hit in August?”, traders have pushed the probability of BTC dropping to $111,000 to 80%.

In contrast, a separate market shows traders believe there is only a 29% chance of the price rallying to $125,000 this month, highlighting the current bearish mood.

This sentiment follows Bitcoin’s struggle to regain momentum after hitting its all-time high of around $122,838 on July 14, 2025. While the flagship coin has recently rebounded from its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the mid-term bearish sentiment has been intensified by increased distribution from short-term holders.

According to from CryptoQuant, short-term holders have been actively selling their Bitcoin. Meanwhile, long-term holders have largely remained steadfast, continuing to hold the asset as a hedge against inflation.

The demand for Bitcoin by the spot BTC ETF issuers has declined in the recent past compared to the prior four months. According to market data from , the U.S. spot BTC ETF issuers have recorded a total net cash outflow of $1.34 billion in August compared to $18.8 billion recorded in the prior four months.

Historically, a decline in BTC demand from spot ETF issuers has been associated with a market drop and vice versa.

However, looking at Bitcoin’s historical performance offers a more complex picture.

According to market data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin price has recorded more choppy Augusts in the last 10 years but registered more than 65% gains during the 2017 crypto summer. With the 2025 bull market depicting a high correlation with the 2017 cycle, BTC price may rebound faster than most traders anticipate.