Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Holds EMA Cluster as Analysts Push Back On McGlone’s $10,000 Call

Bitcoin price today trades near $69,598, holding the 20-day EMA at $69,510 as buyers defend the ascending trendline from the March 9 lows near $65,800. On the surface it looks like a quiet session. Under the hood, the 4-hour chart is sitting at a genuine decision point with Fibonacci resistance stacking directly overhead and a descending channel still compressing price from above.

The descending channel from the March 4 high near $74,000 remains the dominant structure. Price has worked through the EXT 0.618 Fibonacci and is now pressing against R4 at $70,837 and PF1 1R at $71,666, the two levels that have capped every recovery attempt this week. Above those sits R5 at $74,918, which aligns with the top of the failed breakout from early March.

Below, S3 at $63,136 and S4 at $61,103 define the channel downside if sellers reassert control. The channel lower boundary is falling toward $62,000 through mid-March, narrowing the window for bulls to act.

Key levels:

The ascending trendline from March 9 lows is holding on the 30-minute chart, with price bouncing off it near $69,000 this morning. The $71,000 to $72,000 supply zone has rejected price twice and is the short-term ceiling to watch. RSI sits at 44.38 with the signal line at 38.23, diverging higher after the recent low.

The MACD at 1.54 is the most interesting data point on this timeframe. The histogram is narrowing fast toward a bullish cross, and if that cross materialises in the next few candles it would be the first genuine short-term momentum confirmation since the March 10 rally faded.

Key 30-minute levels:

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone is to his call that Bitcoin could fall below $10,000, arguing the market remains trapped in a macro-driven unwind tied to deflationary pressures and excess speculative supply. He told EllioTrades the bear market may not be over and that a durable bottom cannot form until speculative excess is fully purged.

The pushback was swift. Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics said reaching $10,000 would require a global liquidity crisis, a nuclear war, and the internet to stop working. Jason Fernandes of AdLunam placed a more realistic downside scenario around $28,000, contingent on a meaningful contraction in global liquidity. PrimeXBT’s Jonatan Randin called the $10,000 target highly improbable while acknowledging further downside is possible, placing the next real accumulation zone between $30,000 and $40,000 and expecting the near-term range to hold between $60,000 and $70,000.

Greenspan made the most structurally grounded case, pointing out that Bitcoin already cleared its major bear market in 2022 and that a 50% retracement from the all-time high is historically normal. He stopped short of declaring a bottom but said it is quite possible the lows are already in.