ADA trades at $0.2696 on March 25, stuck in a tight range while the daily trend remains bearish. Two contrarian signals not seen together since mid-2023 are flashing at the same time.
After collapsing from $0.3372 in early February, ADA wicked down to $0.2206 in late February before stabilizing. Price has been consolidating between the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $0.2556 and the 0.382 level at $0.2773 ever since, unable to reclaim either cleanly on a daily close.
The Supertrend at $0.2998 and SAR at $0.2907 are both above price and bearish. Clearing $0.2907 is the first step to shifting the daily structure. The 0.5 Fibonacci at $0.2948 sits in that same resistance cluster, making the $0.2900 to $0.3000 zone the wall ADA has to break through.
Key levels:
ADA flushed to $0.2490 on March 22, the lowest print in weeks, then recovered sharply back above $0.2670. Price is now pressing into the descending trendline from the March 18 high near $0.2700 to $0.2710.
RSI reads 69.66 and is approaching overbought territory on this timeframe. The MACD is positive but the histogram is thinning, meaning the bounce is losing steam. A 30-minute close above $0.2710 keeps the recovery alive. Failing that, $0.2620 is the first support on any pullback.
Key levels:
Santiment data ADA’s 365-day MVRV at -43%, meaning the average wallet active on Cardano over the past year is sitting on nearly half its investment in losses. Holders most likely to sell already have, leaving a supply base with limited motivation to dump further.
Funding rates on Binance are at their most negative since June 2023, with shorts heavily dominant. When positioning gets this one-sided, any upward move forces liquidations that buy back positions and push price higher. The last time both signals aligned was mid-2023 with ADA near $0.25, before a 300% over the following 18 months. Macro conditions are harder now and on-chain activity has not shown meaningful growth, but positioning extremes like this rarely need a fundamental trigger to unwind.
Just Now
Dear LBank User
Our online customer service system is currently experiencing connection issues. We are working actively to resolve the problem, but at this time we cannot provide an exact recovery timeline. We sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.
If you need assistance, please contact us via email and we will reply as soon as possible.
Thank you for your understanding and patience.
LBank Customer Support Team