Analyst EGRAG Crypto says XRP continues to follow a long-term structural pattern. He shared the analysis using a 12-year TradingView chart that focuses on repeating cycles, market behavior, and price structure.
Analyst EGRAG Crypto says XRP continues to follow a long-term structural pattern. He shared the analysis using a 12-year TradingView chart that focuses on repeating cycles, market behavior, and price structure.
In a thread on X, EGRAG said many traders focus on short-term price movements while overlooking more comprehensive signals visible only over multiple market cycles.
The analysis is based on XRP’s performance against the U.S. dollar from 2013 to 2026. Rather than focusing on daily or weekly price changes, the chart highlights long-term behavior shaped by investor psychology and recurring patterns. EGRAG said these patterns have remained consistent across different market conditions.
The chart divides XRP’s history into three major cycles. Each cycle follows the same progression: a strong upward move, followed by a lengthy consolidation phase, and then renewed expansion.
Cycle 1 began in 2017, when XRP surged from $0.0055 to a peak above $3. This move represented a gain of about 60,000% from the starting price. After the peak, XRP entered a prolonged consolidation phase.
Cycle 2 developed between 2020 and 2021. XRP rose from $0.17 to about $1.96, a gain of roughly 1,052% from the prior base. As with the first cycle, the rally was followed by another major correction and consolidation within the same upward channel.
EGRAG labeled the current phase as Cycle 3. In 2025, XRP moved above $3 before pulling back into a consolidation range. XRP currently trades at $2.10, down 2.2% in the past day, extending its year-to-date loss to 27%.
The chart includes Fibonacci levels and long-term projections based on previous expansions. Key reference points include 0.702, corresponding to a $2.72 price level, and 1.00, aligning with $3.65, both of which match prior swing highs.
Long-term projections derived from the channel structure point to potential future price zones near $16.50, $35, and $200. These levels correspond to the channel’s upper boundary during past expansion phases.
Given the ambitious nature of the forecast, EGRAG’s post attracted criticism. X user Dr. Alshamari the analyst was “dreaming,” describing the XRP outlook as unrealistic.
A surge to $16.50, $35, or $200 would raise its market capitalization to approximately $999 billion, $2.12 trillion, and $12.12 trillion, respectively. By comparison, Bitcoin’s market cap currently stands at $1.93 trillion, while the total crypto market cap is about $3.36 trillion, making XRP’s higher targets appear far-fetched.
Meanwhile, Tokentus CEO Oliver Michel has XRP could reach $12 if its market share doubles, or $16 if it triples. He noted that ETF momentum signals strong underlying demand, which could accelerate as supply tightens and market conditions improve.Elsewhere, Grok AI playfully XRP could reach $10 by 2026, leading to a $100 bet with X user ScamDetective. At $10, XRP would carry a valuation exceeding $600 billion.
