XRP is finishing the first quarter on an ambiguous note. Despite local success in March, the overall performance at the start of the year requires a close look at historical patterns before entering the second quarter. A look at XRP’s return table by CryptoRank over the past 13 years shows that the second quarter is rarely neutral. It is a time of either explosive growth or deep market cleansing.

Q2 for XRP: Bearish filter or bull trap?

The most striking example remains Q2, 2017, when the asset posted an incredible gain of +1,109%. In 2025, last year, the second quarter closed in modest but confident positive territory at +7.12%. However, investors should also remember 2022, when Q2 delivered a decline of -59.4%.

The first quarter of 2026 is approaching its end with a negative result of -23.7%. In XRP’s history, such “red” first quarters have often preceded attempts at recovery in April-June:

• April, the month of hope: The average April return stands at a record +24.8%. History includes years of explosive growth, such as in 2021 (+174.1%) and 2017 (+137.3%).
• May, extreme swings: This month tends to show either massive gains (+378.1% in 2017) or serious corrections, as seen in 2021 and 2022. The average figure remains high at +25.1%.
• June, the cooling period: Unlike the beginning of the quarter, June has historically been weaker, with an average result of -5.10%.

Considering that 2025 closed largely in the “red zone” from September to December, and the beginning of 2026 continued the downward trend, the market is currently in an oversold state.

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For XRP, the second quarter of 2026 is a moment of truth, with two possible outcomes clear: 

• Bullish scenario: Based on April’s median return (+2.05%) and average (+24.8%), XRP price has every chance to close the next month in positive territory, breaking the streak of underperformance.
• Conservative scenario: If XRP fails to overcome the pressure from the start of the year, a repeat of 2024 may occur, when a weak March was followed by a deep April decline (-20.8%).