Analysts at Standard Chartered said stablecoins are moving faster through the system than expected, complicating a core assumption behind their long-term growth forecasts.

In a new note, Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, said stablecoin velocity — a measure of how often tokens change hands — has risen in recent months after years of relative stability.

It’s a material change because the bank’s widely cited projection that stablecoin supply will reach $2 trillion by 2028 relies in part on how frequently those tokens are used.

Faster turnover can reduce the need for new issuance, even if transaction volumes continue to grow. "Velocity has increased recently, contrary to our assumption that it would remain stable," Kendrick wrote, adding that the change warrants closer monitoring.

New use cases

Data in the Tuesday report shows overall stablecoin velocity has roughly doubled over the past two years, with tokens now turning over about six times per month on average.

According to Standard Chartered, the increase has been driven largely by Circle’s (USDC), which has seen accelerating activity across multiple blockchains.

The bank links the shift to evolving use cases. Stablecoins are no longer confined to just crypto trading and emerging-market savings, Kendrick said. Rather, these fiat-pegged tokens are now increasingly being used as a substitute for traditional financial rails and, more recently, for early-stage AI-driven payments.

This distinction is key in Kendrick’s view.

Standard Chartered argues this so-called "unstable velocity" reflects new, additive demand rather than a broad change in how all stablecoins are used.

Low-velocity use cases such as emerging-market savings — where Tether's (USDT) remains dominant — have not seen the same shift.

$2 trillion by 2028

As a result, the bank is holding its broader thesis intact. It still expects stablecoin supply to reach $2 trillion by 2028 and generate roughly $1 trillion in additional demand for U.S. Treasury bills over that period.

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The reiterated projections underpin a series of increasingly bullish calls from the bank. Over the past year, Standard Chartered has argued stablecoins could reshape global liquidity flows, pull up to $1 trillion from emerging market bank deposits, and emerge as a central force in crypto adoption.

However, the new wrinkle is that velocity may become just as important as supply. "If velocity remains constant, rising transactions will create demand for more stablecoins," Kendrick wrote. "If it increases, that will not be the case, all else equal."

For now, the bank sees no reason to revise its headline forecasts. But it is watching closely as stablecoins move deeper into payments, capital markets, and machine-driven transactions — areas where speed, not just scale, could greatly impact the next growth phase.