Bitcoin may find a bottom around $53,600, while demand conditions remain weak and a durable recovery is not yet in place, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.

The $53,600 level is bitcoin's current realized price, or the aggregate onchain cost basis of all market participants, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said in a report on Wednesday. Historically, bitcoin has bottomed at or marginally below the realized price in each major bear cycle, Moreno noted.

"Historically, it's a level that would confirm a bottom (the realized price). It doesn't mean that we necessarily hit it, but it is still a possibility, especially with bitcoin's demand weakness," Moreno told The Block.

The realized price was briefly breached during the FTX-driven selloff in November 2022 before bitcoin recovered, making it one of the market's key valuation levels, Moreno noted.

Bitcoin fell to a fresh bear market low of around $59,000 last week, leaving it just 9% above its current realized price of $53,600, but it has since recovered and is currently trading at around $62,150, according to The Block's bitcoin price page.

Bitcoin demand remains fragile 

Meanwhile, bitcoin's demand conditions remain "deeply unfavorable," Moreno said, noting that a confirmed bear market bottom or bullish reversal may still take time to develop.

CryptoQuant estimates that total bitcoin demand, combining speculative perpetual futures activity and apparent spot demand, fell by 652,000 bitcoin last week, the largest weekly contraction since January 2022. Both futures and spot demand deteriorated sharply as bitcoin broke below $60,000, triggering long liquidations and accelerating spot selling, Moreno wrote.

Longer-term demand has also weakened. CryptoQuant's one-year apparent demand growth has turned negative and is declining below its moving average at the fastest pace since February 2024, indicating there are fewer bitcoin buyers today than a year ago and "removing the demand foundation required to sustain any price recovery," Moreno wrote.

The report also highlighted a sharp slowdown in institutional demand through spot exchange-traded funds.

Thirty-day ETF demand growth has fallen to negative 74,000 bitcoin, the weakest reading since U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. Rather than absorbing selling pressure, ETFs are now contributing to net supply expansion as investors reduce exposure, Moreno wrote.

At the same time, realized losses have not yet reached bear market capitulation levels, or a phase of mass panic selling during a steep market downturn.

Bitcoin holders realized losses totaling 187,000 bitcoin over the past 30 days, compared with 400,000 bitcoin when bitcoin first fell below $60,000 in this bear market in February 2026 and 1.2 million bitcoin during the FTX-driven market bottom in November 2022, Moreno noted.

"The absence of a capitulation-level spike in realized losses indicates that a large cohort of holders is still above water at $59,000, and has not yet reached the psychological threshold of forced or panic selling," Moreno wrote.

Historically, major bitcoin bottoms have happened after heavy selling and seller exhaustion. Moreno said realized losses have not yet reached those levels, suggesting the market may still need to clear more selling pressure before a lasting recovery can begin.

"The bottom may be near in terms of price level, but a regime change into a bull market requires a constructive demand recovery, a condition not yet visible in the data," Moreno wrote.

Until total demand stabilizes, ETF flows recover, and realized losses reach capitulation-level peaks, Moreno said the current price level should be interpreted as a valuation floor candidate rather than a confirmed cycle bottom.