Rolling one-year notional flows across bitcoin (BTC) investment vehicles turned negative for the first time since late 2023, according to research and brokerage firm K33.

In a Tuesday report, Head of Research Vetle Lunde said one-year notional flows across bitcoin investment vehicles, including exchange-traded products, futures exchange-traded funds, stood at -1,176 BTC as of June 18 — the first negative reading since Nov. 4, 2023.

Notably, during the prior bear market, one-year investment vehicle flows first turned negative on Oct. 21, 2022, just weeks before bitcoin found a bottom, subsequently turning positive about a year later.

"There are, of course, some differences between the two periods," Lunde said. "Flows in 2020-21 were heavily dominated by capital moving into Grayscale's then closed-end structure, resulting in GBTC trading at a discount to NAV rather than experiencing outflows during the bear market. Negative flows in 2022 therefore stemmed from outflows in Canadian and European ETPs and futures-based products such as BITO."

Lunde noted that global bitcoin ETPs now hold 1,466,029 BTC, down 127,774 BTC, or 8%, from their peak, the largest relative drawdown on record and the biggest notional outflow it has tracked. Previous drawdown lows were 7.1% in February and 5.6% in April 2025.

"Thus, on both a relative and absolute basis, ETP outflows have never been larger than since mid-May, suggesting broad capitulation among ETP investors," he said.

Outflows slow, but demand stays soft

The pace of outflows has cooled in recent days, with 625 BTC in average daily outflows over the past two weeks, down from 4,462 BTC during the four weeks between May 11 and June 5, though flows remain broadly negative.

The firm said that moderation has been an important factor in helping bitcoin stabilize after the heavier selling seen earlier in May and June.

"It is notable that ETPs have retained 92% of their peak asset exposure from October 2025, considering that BTC has retraced 50% in USD terms and is down 60% relative to the QQQ index over the same period," Lunde added.

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Bitcoin is now trading back near its 200-week moving average after falling 6% over the past week to below $62,000, according to The Block's BTC price page. Spot activity has also continued to fade, with average daily volume falling to about $1.99 billion — the third-lowest reading of the past year, per K33.

"The result is a fragile balance with few committed sellers and few committed buyers, setting up the potential for sharp volatility once conviction returns," Lunde said.

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K33 also highlighted mounting strain in Strategy's preferred-share complex. STRC fell below $90 for the first time since launch last week, while the company's preferred securities now carry roughly $1.7 billion in annual dividend obligations, according to the report.

Lunde said Strategy is still "far from being forced to sell BTC" and estimated that, after a recent $300 million capital raise, the company has enough dollar reserves to cover about 10 months of dividend payments.

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