A narrow trading range is giving way to sell pressure for bitcoin (BTC) ahead of a key macro window, as the foremost cryptocurrency fell below $67,000 on Friday, according to The Block’s prices page.

The move follows $171 million in net outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs on March 26, alongside continued outflows from ether funds, which together extend a broader pattern of uneven institutional demand. Ethereum (ETH) subsequently dropped below the $2,000 level on Friday, currently trading for around $1,993.

At the same time, a large quarterly options expiry is adding to near-term uncertainty. Per data from Greekslive, roughly $13 billion in bitcoin contracts settled today, with positioning skewed toward calls, suggesting upside expectations even as spot prices weaken.

The divergence between positioning and price action suggests a market caught between expectations and macro reality.

10-day geopolitical window

Amid the confluence of stimuli, analysts say the next phase will be shaped less by crypto-specific catalysts and more by a short geopolitical window.

A 10-day pause in potential U.S. military escalation has created what Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, describes as a countdown for markets, with direction hinging on whether tensions ease or intensify.

The U.S. dollar is already responding. The Dollar Index is approaching 100, supported by safe-haven demand, elevated yields, and persistent inflation concerns tied to energy markets.

Liquidity is now compressing as a result, Bitunix analysts said. "Misalignment of energy control, monetary tightening, and escalating conflict is pushing liquidity into a compression range," they noted. The experts also point to a market structure driven more by capital redistribution than directional conviction.

Macro and institutional interest

Bitcoin’s recent price action has echoed that shift. The asset has moved from a breakout attempt earlier in the week into a more defensive posture, trading in line with broader de-risking as oil prices, yields, and geopolitical risk remain elevated.

QCP Capital noted that crypto continues to behave as a liquidity-sensitive asset rather than a safe haven, with price action stabilizing but conviction still limited.

Meanwhile, flows offer only partial support. Spot ETF demand in March has improved compared with February but remains inconsistent year to date, leaving the market vulnerable to macro swings.

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Geopolitics remains the dominant variable, according to multiple analysts. Conflicting signals surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations, combined with ongoing military positioning in the Middle East, have kept markets on edge, particularly heading into the weekend, when escalation risk is typically priced more aggressively.

The result is a market in waiting. If tensions ease and the dollar softens, liquidity could return and support a renewed push higher. If the dollar continues to strengthen alongside oil and yields, risk assets like BTC may remain pinned or drift lower.