October’s $3.9 Billion in Token Unlocks to Test Altcoin Market Sentiment

$3.9 billion in token unlocks this October

Projects including Aster, Sui, Aptos, Arbitrum, and Zora will add hundreds of millions in supply to circulation. While token unlocks often increase sell pressure, analysts say the backdrop of prolonged accumulation and the start of Q4 could turn the narrative bullish for altcoins.

Leading the month’s schedule is Aster (ASTER), with $503.58 million in tokens becoming available on October 5. This amounts to 4% of its market capitalization and will see 320 million tokens added to circulation.

Sui (SUI) follows closely with a $180.40 million unlock on October 1, representing 0.57% of its market value. Early in the month, Ethena (ENA) will release $51.23 million in tokens, equal to 0.63% of its capitalization.

Other significant events include Plasma (XPL) with a $90.06 million unlock on October 25, and pump.fun (PUMP), which will add $54.82 million worth of tokens to the market on October 14.

STBL and Arbitrum (ARB) are scheduled for October 16, with unlocks of $81.05 million and $37.71 million respectively.

Aptos (APT) is set for October 12 with $47.96 million, LayerZero (ZRO) for October 20 with $49.23 million, and Zora (ZORA) for October 23 with $41.94 million, equal to 10% of its total supply.

Token unlocks are typically bearish because new supply can trigger selloffs. But analysts argue the timing may favor bulls.

Market watcher Shimotsuma noted that altcoins are in the longest accumulation phase ever, with sideways trading extending beyond three years.

Previous cycles in 2017 and 2021 were preceded by two to three years of sideways activity, and the current cycle has stretched even longer. Such extended periods have often given way to strong rallies.

The start of Q4 adds further weight to the bullish side of the debate. This quarter has traditionally delivered for altcoins, and if patterns repeat, October could set the tone for the next major rally.

While the immediate reaction to unlocks may bring short-term bearishness, the broader picture suggests the market is approaching a turning point.