Cardano ETF Approval Odds Spike to 90%: Is ADA Set for a Breakout in 2025?

Traders are keeping an eye on Cardano (ADA) as confidence grows over a possible spot ETF approval in 2025. to blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket, traders currently assign a 76% chance that a spot Cardano ETF will be approved by the U.S. SEC in 2025.

The odds have surged in recent weeks, with over $374,000 wagered on the outcome, reflecting the new optimism. On the platform, users can buy “Yes” shares at 76 cents and “No” shares at 25 cents, closely reflecting the market’s real-time outlook on regulatory progress.

Much of the momentum stems from improving communication between the crypto sector and the SEC. Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have to the bullish tone, forecasting that Cardano, among other altcoins, has a 90% or higher chance of approval.

Despite the bullish narrative, ADA’s price has experienced notable volatility in recent weeks. Cardano is currently trading at $0.5603, a 0.7% increase in the past day, which reduces its monthly loss to 25.4%.

However, Cardano ETF could lead to a surge in the token’s price. Much like Bitcoin, a spot ETF approval could attract billions in new capital, supporting ADA’s liquidity, visibility, and institutional utility, leading to price uptick.

Notably, the SEC is expected to make a decision on Cardano ETFs by the end of the fourth quarter of 2025.

Cardano is at a crucial technical juncture, with market analysts offering mixed projections on its next move. to analyst Smith, ADA is fast approaching a key trendline resistance, mirroring a previous chart structure that resulted in a 240% breakout.

If history repeats itself, ADA could rally toward the $2.60 mark once again. The analyst suggests investors should “stack accordingly,” signaling a potential bullish breakout is on the horizon.

On the other hand, a more cautious perspective is offered by another analyst, Manofbitcoin, who that ADA has broken below micro support levels, potentially setting the stage for another downward movement in what he identifies as wave-iv.

However, he also points out that a bullish recovery remains possible if ADA can hold above the critical $0.512 support line. This support level could determine whether the token rallies or sinks further.