Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Breakout or Breakdown Next?

Bitcoin price today is trading around $107,800, holding just above its short-term support after a volatile weekend. The token’s correction from its August highs near $118,000 has lasted longer, with sellers keeping the pressure on as whales move their holdings and spot outflows speed up.

The decline comes amid a $215 million Bitcoin selloff linked to a major holder who shifted into Ethereum, a move that sparked debate about institutional positioning. At the same time, Coinglass data shows BTC exchange netflows turning negative by $151 million on September 1, underlining persistent selling.

With technicals pressing into key support at $107,000 and macro chatter about an extended bull run later this year, Bitcoin sits at a pivotal inflection point.

A descending trendline from mid-August continues to constrain Bitcoin price action on the 4-hour chart, with multiple rejections reinforcing $109,000–$110,000 as significant resistance. Immediate support lies at $107,000, with a breakdown exposing deeper bids toward $105,000.

Exponential moving averages cluster tightly overhead. The 20-EMA and 50-EMA limit the price to around $109,000, whereas the 100-EMA and 200-EMA are positioned higher at $112,000 and $113,700, respectively. The setup emphasizes how bulls must clear multiple layers before regaining momentum. RSI has slipped to 33 on the 4-hour chart, suggesting oversold conditions but not yet signaling a confirmed reversal.

The supertrend indicator has flipped bearish below $116,400, underlining the importance of reclaiming higher resistance before buyers can reassert control. Meanwhile, the Parabolic SAR plots above price at $111,600, reinforcing short-term pressure against upside moves.

Despite near-term weakness, holding the $107,500 trendline keeps the broader bullish structure intact. A decisive break beneath this zone would shift focus toward $105,000 and potentially $101,000. Conversely, a rebound here could reestablish momentum toward $112,000 and $116,000, where multiple technical barriers align.

On-chain data reveals significant shifts in positioning. A major Bitcoin wallet offloaded $215 million worth of BTC before accumulating $4 billion in Ethereum, according to data shared by on-chain trackers.

The rotation highlights diverging conviction among large holders, raising questions about short-term Bitcoin dominance.

Spot exchange flows add weight to the bearish tilt. Coinglass reports a $151 million net outflow on September 1, extending a pattern of sustained withdrawals since mid-August. Historically, large negative flows suggest coins moving into custody, but in this case, pressure has coincided with failed resistance retests.

Sentiment remains divided. Some analysts on X highlight historical cycles, comparing today’s structure with the 2020–2021 pre-bull phase. One projection suggests Bitcoin could rally toward $265,000 if the cyclical pattern repeats. Still, short-term flows show sellers firmly in control.

Bulls argue that Bitcoin is still defending its broader daily trendline from March, which sits near $107,500. Holding this zone could stabilize price and set the stage for a rebound toward $112,000 and $116,000. A breakout above the supertrend resistance near $116,400 would flip bias decisively higher.

Bears, however, remain unconvinced. They point to repeated failures at descending resistance and heavy liquidations that have capped rallies since mid-August. If $107,000 fails, Bitcoin risks sliding toward $105,000 and even $101,000, where long-term support aligns with prior accumulation zones.

This divergence underscores the near-term tension: while the long-term cycle narrative remains bullish, near-term momentum and flows lean cautious.

Heading into September 2, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can defend $107,000 and reclaim $109,000. A push above this level would ease immediate downside pressure and target $112,000–$113,000, while a confirmed daily close below $107,000 would open a path to $105,000 and potentially $101,000.

With RSI showing oversold conditions and sentiment split between accumulation narratives and whale rotation fears, volatility is expected to stay elevated. The short-term Bitcoin price prediction favors consolidation with downside risk unless bulls step in with volume above $110,000.