Bitcoin Price Prediction: JPMorgan’s Crypto Shift And Polymarket Bets Fuel Talk Of $116K Target

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price today trades near $111,700, extending its recovery after defending key support around $108,000 earlier in the week. The market’s tone has turned cautiously optimistic as traders position around institutional news and tightening supply across exchanges.

Bitcoin has rebounded firmly from the 200-EMA near $108,200, a zone that coincides with the July base and prior breakout area. The daily chart shows price trapped between the 20-EMA at $111,800 and the 50-EMA at $113,300, forming a tight compression zone often seen before a directional move.

Momentum remains neutral but constructive. A sustained close above $113,500 could unlock targets near $116,200 and $119,000, where the Supertrend flips positive. Failure to hold above the short-term averages would invite another retest of the $108,000 floor.

Traders are watching this cluster closely as volatility contracts — a breakout from this range is likely to define Bitcoin price action into November.

Coinglass data shows $12 million in net outflows from centralized exchanges on October 25. Though modest, the trend continues a broader pattern of withdrawals through October, signaling that market participants prefer custody over trading.

Periods of sustained negative netflows have historically aligned with accumulation and price stabilization phases. The latest data reinforce that selling pressure remains limited, even as liquidity across exchanges thins.

The ongoing reduction in available supply underpins current Bitcoin price volatility, creating conditions for stronger upside if momentum reignites.

Sentiment improved further after reports that JPMorgan Chase will allow clients to use Bitcoin and Ether as collateral for secured loans by year-end. The framework, supported by third-party custody, expands the bank’s earlier policy of accepting crypto-linked ETFs.

The development marks a symbolic shift for Wall Street. CEO Jamie Dimon, long critical of Bitcoin, has investor demand despite personal skepticism. For the market, the move validates digital assets as part of mainstream financing and places Bitcoin alongside equities and Treasuries within institutional balance sheets.

Other major banks including Morgan Stanley, State Street, and BNY Mellon have already expanded similar programs, a trend accelerated by the Trump administration’s lighter regulatory stance toward crypto markets.

Data from Polymarket highlight traders near-term expectations: a 52% probability that Bitcoin ends October 26 between $110,000 and $112,000. Another 36% of open positions anticipate a close in the $112,000–$114,000 range.

The pricing shows traders leaning toward consolidation rather than a breakout, consistent with the technical picture on the daily chart. Despite limited upside conviction, the skew toward higher bands reflects underlying confidence that the $108,000 base will hold.

For now, the Bitcoin price prediction remains balanced within a narrow band. A clean close above $113,500 would confirm short-term bullish momentum, opening the path toward $116,200–$119,000. Sustained resistance at the EMA cluster would instead keep the token range-bound near $110,000–$112,000.

If the price slips under $108,000, sellers could re-test $104,000 or the long-term trendline near $100,000.