ETF Outflows Join Fed Caution To Make November A Tough Start For Bitcoin

Bitcoin market sentiment has plunged into “extreme fear” territory as prices slipped below $104,000 on Tuesday. The latest from Alternative’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows a score of 21, reflecting a sharp downturn in investor confidence.

Bitcoin is currently priced at $103,803, marking a 3% decline in the past day, a 9% weekly drop, and a 16% fall over the past month. The pullback has erased most of October’s gains and cooled the excitement that followed the earlier surge above $110,000.

Market anxiety deepened after two major Bitcoin holders moved more than $1.8 billion worth of BTC to exchanges, raising concerns of potential sell pressure. to Lookonchain, trader “BitcoinOG (1011short)” sent about 13,000 BTC ($1.48 billion) to Kraken since October 1.

At the same time, early adopter Owen Gunden transferred 3,265 BTC ($364.5 million ) to the same exchange since October 21.

Large exchange inflows like these are often seen as signals that whales might be preparing to sell.

Bitcoin’s slide also followed the Federal Reserve’s second rate cut of the year last Wednesday. Although the move initially boosted hopes for more liquidity, the Fed’s message that no additional cuts are planned for 2025 disappointed investors looking for a longer easing cycle.

The cautious tone weighed on risk assets, including crypto, as traders adjusted expectations for looser financial conditions. The Fed’s focus on keeping inflation under control has reduced appetite for speculative assets.

Institutional sentiment also weakened. Bitcoin ETFs saw $188 million in net outflows on Monday. Ethereum ETFs lost $135 million, pointing to cooling demand among professional investors. In contrast, Solana (SOL) products attracted $44.5 million in weekly inflows.

The Fear & Greed Index has plunged from “greed” (74) last month to “extreme fear” (21) this week. The index measures factors like volatility, trading volume, dominance, social media sentiment, and Google search trends to gauge overall market mood.

The rapid shift highlights how emotional the market has become following the recent sell-off. Historically, extreme fear levels have sometimes aligned with market bottoms, but analysts warn that sentiment alone isn’t a reliable signal for entry.

Despite the current downturn, historical shows Bitcoin often rebounds after steep declines. Since 2011, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month, averaging a 37.5% gain.

Quarterly data also suggests room for recovery. After a modest +6.4% in Q3, Bitcoin’s Q4 2025 return sits at –8.4%, leaving potential for a rebound if sentiment steadies in the coming weeks.