Arthur Hayes Warns France’s Debt Spiral Could Spark Eurozone Crisis and Fuel Bitcoin Demand

France’s worsening debt and banking problems may be the spark that ignites a wider Eurozone crisis, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. In his latest essay, Hayes argues that rising deficits, reliance on foreign creditors, and capital flight point to looming capital controls and even the possibility of France abandoning the euro. He suggests that this environment will inevitably strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as savers and investors seek protection from monetary instability.

France now carries one of the largest TARGET2 deficits in the Eurozone, reflecting massive capital leaving its banking system. Savers are increasingly moving money to safer jurisdictions like Germany and Luxembourg.

Hayes stresses that this is not just a technical imbalance but a clear sign of distrust in France’s ability to honor obligations under the euro framework. Unlike past crises in smaller southern nations, France is simply too large to be bailed out without extraordinary measures.

Moreover, the problem is compounded by the country’s heavy reliance on foreign lenders. Nearly 60% of French long-term government bonds are owned abroad, with Germany and Japan the largest creditors.

With both countries shifting toward domestic investment strategies, France may struggle to finance its expanding deficit. Domestic politics further complicate the picture, as pressure for more public spending clashes with strict ECB rules limiting deficits to 3% of GDP.

Hayes warns that France could respond by imposing strict capital controls. These measures might include restrictions on foreign withdrawals, limits on euro transfers, and even re-denomination of assets into a weaker national currency.

If France were to revive the franc, it could regain monetary independence but at the cost of deep losses for both foreign and domestic savers. The risk of capital flight before such controls are imposed could run into trillions, creating systemic stress across Europe’s financial institutions.

Consequently, Hayes sees Bitcoin as the major beneficiary. He argues that European savers, facing both political and financial risks, will increasingly turn to Bitcoin and gold as safe-haven assets.

Unlike traditional banking deposits, Bitcoin offers an escape route that cannot be blocked once capital controls emerge. If the ECB is forced into large-scale money printing to stabilize banks, the demand for hard assets could accelerate even further.