Bitcoin Holders Show Record Conviction as Prediction Markets Price in a Calm June

While prediction markets are betting on a relatively calm June for Bitcoin, deep on-chain data reveals a story of record-breaking conviction from long-term holders who are refusing to sell, signaling a powerful bullish undercurrent for the BTC market.

As Bitcoin hovers near its all-time high, this disconnect between short-term expectations and long-term holder behavior is becoming a key focus for analysts. Data from prediction platform Polymarket reveals that the most likely scenario for Bitcoin’s price by the end of June is $115,000, with a 61% probability.

Traders are pricing this level as the , reflecting confidence that BTC will maintain its current strength without an immediate breakout. Here’s a breakdown of the odds:

While traders are optimistic about upside continuation, they expect Bitcoin to trade within a $100K–$120K range in June, with a significant number betting on consolidation just around its all-time high.

argue that despite Bitcoin’s sharp rebound to $110K, whale behavior is atypical. In past cycles, such levels were met with aggressive profit-taking, yet this time, large holders seem unusually patient.

Whales show no intention of taking profits at this price level and are likely to wait for higher prices,

This sentiment is , who stated that during previous cycle peaks, whale inflows to Binance exceeded $5 billion–$8 billion, followed by steep corrections. Today, however, exchange inflows hover around $3 billion and are declining, implying that whales are holding back and expecting higher valuations.

Data from the on-chain intelligence firm Glassnode confirms this trend of . After hitting a new all-time high of $111K, Bitcoin briefly pulled back to $101K, but quickly rebounded to $110.3K. Importantly, this bounce occurred right at the short-term holder cost basis of $97.6K, which is acting as a robust support level.

Glassnode also observed that long-term holders (LTHs) are realizing $930 million/day in profits, yet showing signs of hesitance to fully offload. Realized profits from holders of 1y+ BTC have plunged from $126 million to just $13.6 million, an 89% drop, indicating fewer mature investors are selling.

Options markets are pricing in low volatility, possibly underestimating an impending volatility spike. While profit-taking exists, it is not outpacing demand.