Crypto analyst and creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model PlanB, has discussed four possible outcomes for Bitcoin’s current bear market. The analysis follows a sharp drawdown of over 40% from Bitcoin’s all-time high of above $126,000.
The first scenario assumes Bitcoin repeats its deepest historical declines. An 80% drop from the $126,000 high would push the price toward $25,000.
PlanB this outcome has occurred in past cycles, but noted it would place Bitcoin between major long-term support bands in a zone where price has rarely stayed for long.
The analyst had also rolled out a poll, and roughly 14.8% of participants in PlanB’s poll selected the $25,000 level.
The second scenario targets a move down to the 200-week moving average and realized price. These levels currently sit between $50,000 and $60,000.
In January, the 200-week moving average closed near $58,000, while the realized price stood around $55,000. Previous bear markets have consistently bottomed near these levels.
This scenario is the market favorite. About 47.1% of respondents voted for a pullback into the $50,000-$60,000 range.
The third path assumes a shallow bear market. Under this view, holds just above the previous cycle’s all-time high near $69,000, placing a potential floor around $70,000.
PlanB linked this scenario to weak bull market momentum. RSI failed to reach extreme highs during the rally, reducing the amount of excess to unwind.
Approximately 28.7% of poll participants selected this outcome.
The fourth scenario suggests Bitcoin may have already bottomed. Price briefly touched $72,900 earlier this week, which PlanB said could mark a local low if the bear market remains shallow.
This outcome received the least support in the poll, with about 9.4% of voters selecting it.
PlanB stated that his stock-to-flow model remains unchanged and still implies a long-term valuation near $500,000. He added that the model reflects scarcity value and does not predict short-term tops or bottoms.
The analyst also noted that the usual four-year cycle timing has changed. Bitcoin did not peak in the first two years after the 2024 halving, leaving the possibility that the cycle’s strongest phase could still lie ahead.
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