BTC bounced back to just below its all-time high ($69,500) on Wednesday after dipping to approximately $62,400 (a dip of approximately $10,000 in one day). Currently, with BTC valued at about $69,351 (and possibly heading north of $69,388-69,490 by 2/25/26), the price surge is an encouraging sign compared to the rather erratic price movements during February.
The price increase was also helped by an infusion of new capital into the Bitcoin spot ETF market as well as a general improvement in sentiment around risk assets after US President Donald Trump's recent State of the Union Speech.
The data from the derivatives markets indicated that leverage played no significant role in driving the price of Bitcoin up. The decline in open interest on futures contracts for Bitcoin and the stable or compressed funding rates are indicators of real buying of Bitcoin at spot markets being the reason for the increase, not forced liquidations or an excessive amount of leverage being liquidated.
The recovery gave places to breathe after the pressure seen earlier in February due to the uncertainties in the global economy.
Source: Author
Tuesday night Trump referred to his return to the White House in his first year (2025) as an “amazing economic turnaround.” He pointed to falling mortgages and core inflation at 1.7% for the last three months of 2025.
Markets interpreted this as easing near-term policy risks, given the earlier tariff volatility and uncertainty. This created a risk-on attitude for stocks and cryptocurrencies (i.e. no negative impact).
NewsNation and PBS, for example, did a fact check on Trump’s comments saying, while inflation is declining (2.4% change year over year February 2026), the “historic” context is based on things that started before he took office.
On February 24, 2025, SPOT BTC ETFs exhibited major positive bias. Daily inflows for the day were $257.7MM net inflows - the largest net daily inflow for several weeks - ending 5 weeks of negative redemptions which drained -$3.8B in net redeeming funds.
Notable inflow amounts were:
The influx of capital back into the SPOT bitcoin market indicates higher institutional and retail interest in testing the lower prices, thus providing direct SPOT price support to increase SPOT pricing.
The overall outlook on the rally is positive due to positively breaking through a key level in the spot market and a calming of macroeconomic headlines. Still, Bitcoin remains well below the all-time highs achieved near $100,000 in late 2021, and February was characterized by overall large levels of deleveraging.
If the spot market continues to see an increase in ETF inflows, if the macroeconomic outlook continues to remain stable, then momentum could sustain itself.
The following data and analysis were collated from current market movements as tracked by CoinGlass’ ETF flows, CoinDesk’s market-related analysis, and from NewsNation, PBS and AP coverage of measures of the economic state of the union. Data for price and flow data through February 25, 2026.
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